How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Machida to score 81%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Machida host Kashiwa Reysol at home in a J1 League clash on 20 September 2026. Machida sit second in the twenty-team table with seventeen points from seven games and a plus-thirteen goal difference. One place above them is Sanfrecce Hiroshima, level on points, while FC Tokyo sit just below, also on the same points tally. Kashiwa Reysol sit fifth with fifteen points and a plus-three goal difference, one point behind Vissel Kobe and one point ahead of Yokohama F.Marinos. Both teams are close on the ladder, so a win could tighten the race for the top spots.
Machida have not lost in their last eight matches, recording five wins and three draws. Their most recent results are a 2-0 home win over Svay Rieng, a 1-1 draw with Yokohama F.Marinos at home, another 1-1 draw with the same side, a 3-1 away victory over Nagoya Grampus, a 2-1 home win over Kawasaki Frontale and a 1-1 away draw with Mito. In those eight games they have scored seventeen goals and let in six, keeping two clean sheets. At home in the last five fixtures they have won three and drawn two, never losing. Four of the eight matches featured three or more goals and both sides scored in six of them. They played just three days ago, so they are coming in on a short turnaround.
Reysol’s form over their last eight games shows five wins and three defeats. Their newest results are a 2-1 away loss to Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors, a 3-2 away win over Kyoto, a 2-0 home loss to Yokohama F.Marinos, a 2-0 away loss to Cerezo Osaka, a 1-0 away win over Shimizu S-Pulse and a 4-2 home win over V-Varen Nagasaki. On the road in their last five outings they have won three and lost two. They have scored fourteen goals and conceded twelve in the eight-game run, keeping only one clean sheet and failing to find the net twice. Five of those games produced three or more goals and both sides scored in five. They played four days ago, also on a short turnaround.
The two clubs have met four times before. Machida have won twice, Reysol once and one game ended in a draw. Those meetings have averaged two goals per game. The most recent encounter was a 1-0 win for Reysol at Machida on 6 December 2025. Given the recent goal averages and the fact that both sides have been involved in several high-scoring games, we can expect another match with at least a couple of goals, and both teams are likely to find the net.
Our pick is that Machida will score. The chance of Machida scoring at all sits at 79 % and our own view puts the likelihood at 81 %. The price on offer is 1.29, which is longer than what we think the game deserves. For the pick to fail, Machida would have to be shut out, which would require a very tight defensive display from Reysol – something we have not seen often in their recent games. All things considered, the odds look attractive and the probability of a Machida goal is high.
Recent results
Machida have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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