How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Under 3.5 goals 70%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks to be a tight one. Sanfrecce Hiroshima are the stronger side on the numbers we have, and they are playing at home. Both teams have been solid lately – Hiroshima have not lost in their last five league games and have come from two draws, while Nagoya have won two straight after a five-game run of three wins and two defeats. Expect a careful match with few chances.
Recent results and the head-to-head give us a mixed picture. In the last five meetings Hiroshima have won two and Nagoya three, and those games have produced an average of 3.6 goals. The most recent encounter ended 1-2 to Nagoya in June 2025. The trend suggests both sides can score, but the overall goal tally has been fairly high in past clashes.
We are backing the Under 3.5 goals. Our own view of the match is that it will be cagey, with around 2.5 goals in total – roughly 1.7 for Hiroshima and 0.8 for Nagoya. The price of 1.56 is longer than we think the game will be, so it looks attractive. We feel confident, with a 69 % chance of this outcome.
For the pick to go wrong, the game would need to open up and produce four or more goals. That could happen if both teams attack heavily early on, but the recent form and the way they have played each other suggest a more restrained approach. We hold our view fairly strongly.
Recent results
Nagoya Grampus have won three of the last five meetings.
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