What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 0.8 from Nagoya Grampus, so Sanfrecce Hiroshima come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.5 goals in total (xG 1.7-0.8), keeping it under more often than not (about 72%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.46, which works out at about 68 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
One end-to-end spell, or a defensive mistake, and the goals can pile up before either side settles. We make it about 72%: a lean, not a lock.
