Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Shimizu S-Pulse: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 4. We made Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win 62%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Sanfrecce Hiroshima host Shimizu S-Pulse at home in a J1 League clash on 24 October 2026. Hiroshima sit third in the 20-team table with 23 points from 11 games and a +15 goal difference. One point separates them from FC Tokyo above and Vissel Kobe below, so a win would keep them in the chase for the top two spots. Pulse sit mid-table in 11th place with 14 points and a –6 goal difference, two points behind Fagiano Okayama and one ahead of Nagoya Grampus. The match could tighten the race at the top while Pulse look to climb back into the safe zone.

Hiroshima have been in fine form over their last eight outings, winning six, drawing one and losing one. Their most recent result was a 4-0 defeat away to V-Varen Nagasaki, but before that they beat Kyoto 3-0 at home, drew 1-1 with Matsumoto Yamaga away, and enjoyed a 2-0 win at Verdy. They also recorded a 4-0 home victory over Iwaki FC and a 2-1 away win at Tochigi City FC. In those eight games they have scored 19 goals and let in just seven, keeping four clean sheets and only failing to find the net once. All three of their recent home games have been wins, showing they are strong on their own turf.

Pulse have been less consistent in the same period, with four wins, one draw and three defeats. Their latest game was a heavy 5-0 loss at home to Machida, preceded by a 2-2 draw with Gamba Osaka at home. Before that they fell 2-1 away to Yokohama F. Marinos, then beat Mito 2-1 away, won 2-0 at Zweigen Kanazawa and edged Chiba 2-1 at home. In eight matches they have scored 11 and conceded 14, keeping two clean sheets and being shut out once. The side have gone three games without a win, and like Hiroshima they are coming off a match played only three days ago.

When the two clubs meet the games have been tight. In their last five meetings Hiroshima have won once, Pulse once and three have ended in draws, with an average of 1.8 goals per match. The most recent encounter was a goalless draw at Hiroshima on 10 August 2025. Given the low scoring history and the similar recent form, we can expect a cautious affair, but Hiroshima’s stronger home record should give them the edge.

We pick Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win. Our reading of the numbers puts Hiroshima at about two goals per game and Pulse under one, and we see a 62 % chance of a Hiroshima victory. The price of 1.41 is shorter than our assessment, so it looks attractive. For the result to go wrong Hiroshima would need to repeat the 4-0 loss they suffered three days ago and Pulse would have to find the net more often than their recent record suggests. Otherwise the home side should come out on top.