How it turned out
We projected about 1.9 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Avispa Fukuoka to score 70%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Verdy host Avisma Fukuoka at home in a J1 League clash on 24 October 2026. Both clubs are stuck in the relegation zone. Verdy sit bottom of the table, 20th out of 20, with five points from eleven games and a goal difference of minus fourteen. One place above them, JEF United Chiba sit just one point clear. Avispa Fukuoka are two spots higher, 18th, with seven points and a minus six goal difference. Kyoto Sanga FC sit two points ahead of them, while JEF United Chiba are one point behind. The two sides are separated by only two points, so a single result could move the balance in the fight for survival.
Verdy have not won in their last five matches. In their last eight games they have recorded one win, three draws and four defeats. The most recent results were a 2-2 draw away at Yokohama F. Marinos, a 4-0 loss at home to FC Tokyo, a 2-0 home defeat by Sanfrecce Hiroshima and a 3-1 loss away to Urawa Reds. Before that they drew 1-1 with Chiba at home and beat Reilac Shiga 1-0 away. In those eight games Verdy have scored five goals and let in fourteen. They kept two clean sheets but failed to find the net in four matches. Their last four home games have produced no wins, one draw and three losses. They are also coming off a match only three days ago, so fatigue could be a factor.
Avispa Fukuoka have also struggled, losing six of their last eight outings. Their recent run includes a 2-1 home loss to Gamba Osaka, a 3-0 away defeat to Machida, a 2-1 loss away at Sagan Tosu, a 2-1 home win over Okayama, a 1-0 home loss to Yokohama FC and a 1-0 home defeat by Sanfrecce Hiroshima. The win against Okayama is their only victory in the stretch. Across those eight games they have scored five goals and conceded twelve, failing to score in four matches. Their last three road games have all ended in defeat. Like Verdy, they played just three days ago, so the short turnaround may affect their performance.
The two clubs have met four times before. Verdy have won once, while the other three encounters ended in draws. The games have been very low-scoring, averaging just 0.2 goals per match. The most recent meeting was a goalless draw on 8 November 2025. Given the history of tight, low-scoring affairs and the fact that both sides have struggled to score recently, we expect another cautious contest with few chances.
Our pick is for Avispa Fukuoka to find the net. We estimate they have a 69 % chance of scoring at all and a 32 % chance of scoring twice. The price of 1.42 matches our view of the game. If the match stays dead-locked at 0-0, our pick will fail. A goal from Avispa, even a single one, would be enough for the bet to succeed. We think the odds are attractive and the likelihood of a goal is high enough to make the wager worthwhile.
Recent results
Verdy have won one of the last four meetings, with three drawn.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
