How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 55%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks fairly even in terms of chances. Our goal expectations are 1.4 for V-Varen Nagasaki and 1.8 for Gamba Osaka, which adds up to about three goals. Gamba Osaka are the stronger side on those numbers, but the figures still point to an open match with chances at both ends.
Looking at recent form, V-Varen Nagasaki have won two of their last five league games and lost three, while Gamba Osaka have only one win, three draws and one loss in the same span. Osaka come into this fixture after two straight draws. In the last two meetings between the clubs each side has won once, and those games have produced an average of three goals. The most recent encounter in 2018 ended 2-1 to Osaka, showing both teams can find the net.
Our pick is both teams to score. Both sides are averaging enough shots to score – about 1.4 goals for Nagasaki and 1.8 for Osaka – and the 55 % chance we give it reflects that. The price of 1.66 is shorter than what we think the game deserves, so we feel the odds are attractive.
For the bet to fail, one side would need to keep a clean sheet. That could happen if Nagasaki struggle to create clear chances or if Osaka tighten up defensively after a draw. We still hold our view fairly strongly, but we know a shut-out would spoil the pick.
Recent results
The last two meetings are split 1-1, with no drawn.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
