Bucheon FC 1995 v Gimcheon Sangmu: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Gimcheon Sangmu to win 37%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Bucheon FC 1995 host Gimcheon Sangmu at home in a K League 1 clash on 19 September. Bucheon sit 10th of 12 with 32 points after 29 games and a –7 goal difference. They are in the relegation zone, just three points clear of FC Anyang above them. Gimcheon are 11th, two points behind Bucheon, with 30 points and a –8 goal difference, also fighting to stay up. A win for either side moves them a step away from the drop, while a loss could see them slip into the danger zone.

Gimcheon Sangmu come into the game on a run of three draws. Their most recent result was a 2-2 home draw with Gangwon FC, followed by a goalless away draw at Pohang Steelers and before that a 2-2 home draw with Gwangju FC. In those three matches they have scored four goals and let in four. They kept one clean sheet, failed to find the net in one game, and both of the higher-scoring draws saw each side score. The last match was six days ago, so they have had a short break before traveling to Bucheon.

We pick Gimcheon Sangmu to win. The price of 2.30 is shorter than what we feel the game is worth, making it an attractive offer. Our reading of the numbers shows both teams averaging just over one goal each, but Gimcheon have shown they can pick up points away from home even when scoring only once. For Gimcheon to miss out they would need to be shut out again and let Bucheon score twice, which seems less likely given Bucheon’s 69 % chance to score at all. If the match ends in a draw or a Bucheon win, our pick would fail, but the odds and the recent form give us confidence in the away side.