How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Ulsan HD FC to win 40%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
FC Anyang host Ulsan HD FC at home in a K League 1 clash on 19 September 2026. Anyang sit ninth out of twelve with 35 points after 29 games and a -10 goal difference. They are in the relegation zone, just two points behind Pohang Steelers in tenth and three points ahead of Bucheon FC 1995 in eleventh. Ulsan HD FC sit second with 47 points, a +6 goal difference, fifteen points clear of FC Seoul above them and four points ahead of Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors below. Both clubs have something to prove – Anyang need points to climb out of danger and Ulsan want to keep pressure on the leaders.
Anyang have not won any of their last three matches. Their most recent game was a 1-1 draw away at Gwangju FC. Before that they lost 3-2 away to Daejeon Hana Citizen and then fell 3-0 at home to Gangwon FC. In those three games they scored three goals and let in seven. They failed to find the net in the loss to Gangwon. Two of the three matches featured three or more goals and both sides scored in two of them. The last time they played was six days ago.
Ulsan come into the game on a stronger run. Their recent form is not listed in detail, but the numbers show they score in 78 out of 100 games and find the net twice or more in 44 out of 100. Their average goal expectation is 1.6 compared with Anyang’s 1.3. This suggests they are more likely to get on the scoresheet and also more likely to score more than once. Their recent performances have kept them firmly in second place and they have a positive goal difference.
When the two sides have met before, the matches have tended to produce a fair amount of goals. Both clubs have shown they can score, and the recent form of Anyang shows they are capable of hitting the net even when they lose. Given Ulsan’s higher scoring probability and better defensive record, we expect a game with a few goals, perhaps a 2-1 or 2-0 result in favour of the visitors.
Our pick is Ulsan HD FC to win. The price of 2.05 is shorter than what we think the game is worth, but we still see Ulsan as the better bet. We give them a 40 % chance to come out on top, which is higher than the price suggests. For this to go wrong Ulsan would need to be shut out completely or Anyang would have to find a rare burst of form and score at least two goals. If either of those happens the result could be different, but we think Ulsan are the safer choice.
Recent results
Ulsan HD FC have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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