How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Daejeon Hana Citizen to win 37%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Incheon United host Daejeon Hana Citizen at Incheon on 20 September in a K League 1 clash that could move both clubs out of the danger zone. Incheon sit eighth of twelve with 37 points from 28 games and a +3 goal difference. They are just one point behind FC Anyang and level on points with Pohang Steelers, who sit directly below them. Daejeon sit six-th with 39 points from 29 games and a +9 goal difference. They are three points behind Gangwon FC and one point ahead of FC Anyang. A win for either side will tighten the race at the bottom, while a loss could see Incheon slip into the relegation places.
Incheon’s recent form has been mixed. They have not been listed with any specific results, so we cannot point to a run of wins or losses. What we do know is that they have scored in 73 % of their games this season and have found the net twice or more in 37 % of matches. Their goal output sits at about 1.2 per game. That modest scoring record, combined with a slim positive goal difference, suggests they have struggled to turn draws into wins.
Daejeon come into the game on the back of three unbeaten outings. Their most recent match was a 1-0 victory over Kyoto Sanga FC at home. Before that they drew 2-2 with Pohang Steelers, also at home, and prior to that they beat FC Anyang 3-2 on their own turf. In those three games they have scored six goals and let in four, keeping one clean sheet. Two of the matches featured three or more goals and both sides scored in each. Their recent run shows they can both score and concede, and they have not lost in their last five days.
When the two clubs have met before, the numbers are almost identical. Incheon average 1.2 goals per game while Daejeon average 1.3. Both sides have a high chance of finding the net – 73 % for Incheon and 76 % for Daejeon – and a similar chance of scoring twice or more. The expected total of about 2.6 goals points to a modestly open game, with both teams likely to get on the scoresheet. Given the similarity in scoring rates, the match could be decided by who is sharper in front of goal or who can keep a clean sheet.
We pick Daejeon Hana Citizen to win. The price of 2.55 sits close to our own reading of the game and looks good for a side that has been unbeaten in three and carries a better goal difference. Our chance of this landing is 37 %, which matches the odds. For Daejeon to miss out they would need to be shut out completely or concede enough to lose by a single goal, something that would require a very tight defensive display from Incheon. If the game follows the recent patterns and both sides score, Daejeon’s recent form gives them the edge to take all three points.
Recent results
Daejeon Hana Citizen have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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