What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Incheon United and 1.3 from Daejeon Hana Citizen, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Daejeon Hana Citizen to win. Daejeon Hana Citizen shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.3), and we make them about 38% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 37 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.50, which works out at about 40 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Incheon United have won one of their last three.
✓Daejeon Hana Citizen are unbeaten in their last three — two wins and one draw.
