How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC to win 64%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC and 0.7 from Gwangju FC, so Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC to win. Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.7), and we make them about 66% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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