How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Daejeon Hana Citizen to win 49%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Daejeon Hana Citizen and 1.2 from FC Anyang, so Daejeon Hana Citizen come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Daejeon Hana Citizen to win. Daejeon Hana Citizen are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-1.2), and we make them about 50% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 49 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.63, which works out at about 61 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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