How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Jeju SK to win 42%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Gwangju FC and 1.3 from Jeju SK, so Jeju SK come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Jeju SK to win. Jeju SK shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.3), and we make them about 44% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 42 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.96, which works out at about 51 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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