How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC to win 38%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Gangwon FC and 1.2 from Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC, so Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC to win. Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.2), and we make them about 39% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 38 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.80, which works out at about 36 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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