What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Incheon United and 1.0 from Bucheon FC 1995, so Incheon United come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Incheon United to win. Incheon United are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.0), and we make them about 41% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.79, which works out at about 56 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Incheon United have not won any of their last three.
✓Bucheon FC 1995 have not won any of their last three.
