What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Gangwon FC and 1.0 from Incheon United, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Gangwon FC to win. Gangwon FC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.0), and we make them about 41% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.45, which works out at about 41 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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