How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made FC Seoul to win 45%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Pohang Steelers host FC Seoul at home in a K League 1 clash on 20 September 2026. The Steelers sit ninth out of twelve with 37 points from 29 games and a minus seven goal difference, a spot that belongs to the relegation zone. One place above them, Incheon United are level on points, while Gimcheon Sangmu sit just below, four points back. FC Seoul sit on top of the table with 62 points, a plus-32 goal difference and a comfortable fifteen points clear of fourth-placed Ulsan HD FC. The match could see the leaders try to pull away at the summit while the hosts fight to stay out of the drop zone.
Pohang’s recent form has been poor. In their last three outings they have not won a single game. They lost 3-1 away to Beijing Guoan, then drew 2-2 away at Daejeon Hana Citizen, and most recently held Gimcheon Sangmu to a 0-0 draw at home. Over those three matches they have scored three goals and let in five. They kept one clean sheet but also failed to find the net in the goalless draw. Two of the three games produced three or more goals, and both sides scored in two of those fixtures.
FC Seoul have also struggled to find consistency. In their last three games they have one win and two defeats. They were beaten 1-0 at home by Persib Bandung, then travelled to beat Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC 2-1, and most recently lost 1-0 away to Ulsan HD FC. In that stretch they have scored only two goals while conceding three, and they have been shut out in two of the three matches. The most recent loss was a narrow 1-0 defeat, showing they can keep games tight even when they do not score. Seoul played just four days ago, so they will be coming into this match on a short turnaround.
The two clubs have met before, but the data we have does not give any specific past scorelines, so we cannot draw on a head-to-head record. What we can see from the numbers is that both sides are likely to score, with Pohang having a 65 per cent chance of finding the net and Seoul a 78 per cent chance. The expected total is about 2.4 goals, suggesting a game with a couple of chances for each side and a reasonable chance of a goal from both.
Our pick is FC Seoul to win. The numbers give Seoul a higher expected goal tally (1.4 versus 1.0) and a better chance of scoring at least once. The price of 1.89 is shorter than what we feel the game is worth, making it an attractive offer. We think Seoul have about a 45 per cent chance of taking all three points. For this to go wrong they would need to be shut out again, as they have been in two of their last three games, and allow Pohang to score twice, which would be a surprise given the Steelers have only managed one goal in three matches. If Seoul can break their recent scoring drought and keep a clean sheet, the win looks likely.
Recent results
FC Seoul have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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