What to expect
We expect about 0.8 goals from Atyrau and 1.3 from Ordabasy Shymkent, so Ordabasy Shymkent come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Ordabasy Shymkent to win. Ordabasy Shymkent shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-1.3), and we make them about 50% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 48 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.69, which works out at about 59 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
