Tobol Kostanay v FC Yelimay: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Tobol Kostanay to win 52%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Tobol Kostanay host FC Yelimay at home in the Kazakhstan Premier League on 17 September 2026. Tobol sit seventh in the 16-team table with 34 points from 25 games, while Yelimay are sixth with 35 points from 24 games. The two clubs are separated by just one point, and both have a neutral goal difference of zero. A win for Tobol would lift them to sixth place and put pressure on Zhenis, who sit one spot below. A loss would see them drop a place and let Yelimay pull further clear of the relegation-free zone. The clash is therefore a small but important battle for a higher league position.

Tobol have been inconsistent in recent weeks. They lost 3-0 to Celtic and then fell 4-1 at the hands of Kilmarnock. Those two defeats add up to a run of seven goals conceded without reply. The side has struggled to find the net, scoring only once in those two matches. The run leaves them with a shaky defensive record and a lack of firepower heading into this game.

Yelimay have also had a mixed spell. They were beaten 2-0 by Astana and then drew 1-1 with Shakhter. Their most recent result came against Ordabasy, where they managed a 2-2 draw after coming from behind. In that match they showed some resilience, finding the net twice and forcing a point. The draw means they have not lost their last game, but they have still given up two goals at home.

When the two sides have met before, the games have tended to be close affairs with both teams able to score. The numbers suggest a similar pattern this time. Tobol are expected to score about 1.7 goals, while Yelimay average around 1.2. The chance of Tobol finding the net at all is high, 85 %, and they have a 53 % chance of scoring twice or more. Yelimay’s chance to score is 68 % with a 31 % chance of getting two goals. This points to a game with at least one goal from each side and the possibility of a few goals overall.

We pick Tobol Kostanay to win. The price of 2.00 matches our view of the game. Tobol are the stronger side on the numbers and we see them having about a 54 % chance to come out on top. The price looks good for that probability. For our pick to go wrong, Tobol would need to fail to score at all, which is only a 15 % chance, or Yelimay would have to score twice and hold on, a scenario that would require both a defensive lapse from Tobol and a very efficient Yelimay attack. If those unlikely events happen, the result could be a draw or a Yelimay win, but we think Tobol’s home advantage and slightly better scoring outlook give them the edge.