Kairat Almaty v Tobol Kostanay: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 2.0 goals from Kairat Almaty and 0.8 from Tobol Kostanay, so Kairat Almaty come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Our pick: Kairat Almaty (Draw No Bet). Kairat Almaty are favoured here (xG 2.0-0.8), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Kairat Almaty defeat beats you.

We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.20, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.