Ulytau v FC Altai Oskemen: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Ulytau to win 45%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Ulytau host FC Altai Oskemen at home in the Kazakhstan Premier League on 13 September. Ulytau sit ninth out of sixteen, with 31 points from 25 games and a goal difference of minus 8. One place above them is Zhenis, just a point clear, while Kaspiy Aktau sit below, five points back. The two sides are close in the table, but Ulytau have a small edge in the numbers and will be looking to climb back into the top half. A win would give them a breathing space and could push them above the relegation-watch zone, while Altai Oskemen will be hoping to keep their own hopes alive with a point.

Ulytau’s recent form has been mixed. In their last three matches they have been involved in a 2-1 win, a 3-0 loss and a 4-1 defeat. Those results give them just one win out of three and a total of six goals scored while conceding eight. The run shows they can find the net but also that they have been vulnerable at the back, especially in the two heavy defeats.

Altai Oskemen have also been inconsistent. Their previous three games produced a 1-1 draw, a 2-2 stalemate and a 3-0 loss. The most recent 3-0 defeat was a clear setback, as they failed to score and allowed three without reply. Across those three fixtures they have scored three goals and let in five, indicating a modest attack that can be shut out.

When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to be low-scoring affairs. The pattern fits the current expectations: Ulytau are expected to average 1.3 goals and Altai Oskemen 0.8, pointing to a tight contest with few chances. Both sides have a decent chance of scoring at least once – 70 % for Ulytau and 54 % for Altai – but the odds of either side finding the net twice are low, 35 % and 19 % respectively. We expect a cautious battle, likely decided by a single goal.

We back Ulytau to win. The price of 2.15 matches our own reading of the game and looks reasonable. Ulytau’s numbers are stronger and they have a 45 % chance of coming out on top, which is the highest probability we see. The pick is clean because a win would be enough to improve their league position, and the price is close to what we think the result is worth. It could go wrong if Altai Oskemen manage to tighten up defensively and snatch a draw, or if Ulytau’s defence slips again and they concede more than one. In that case the price would not pay off.