How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 0. We made FC Astana to win 74%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.3 goals from FC Astana and 0.7 from Kaisar Kyzylorda, so FC Astana come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Kaisar Kyzylorda come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: FC Astana to win. FC Astana are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.3-0.7), and we make them about 76% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.45, which works out at about 69 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
FC Astana have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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