Zhetysu Taldykorgan v FC Astana: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made FC Astana to win 62%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Zhetysu Taldykorgan host FC Astana at home in the Kazakhstan Premier League on 31 October 2026. Zhetysu sit 14th out of 16 with 26 points and a –18 goal difference, deep in the relegation zone. They are just one point ahead of Atyrau and one point above FC Altai Oskemen, so every point matters. Astana are third with 53 points and a +17 goal difference, comfortably in the European places. They sit two points clear of Okzhetpes Kokshetau and eleven behind Kairat Almaty. The clash pits a side fighting to stay up against a team pushing for a top-three finish, and the standings make the game a must-win for Zhetysu and a chance for Astana to pull away from their nearest rivals.

Zhetysu’s recent form has been poor. In their last eight games they have won two, drawn one and lost five. The most recent results are a 1-1 draw with Tobol Kostanay at home, a 2-1 home win over Kaisar Kyzylorda, a 1-0 away loss to Kairat Almaty, a 1-0 home defeat by Kaspiy Aktau, a 2-1 away loss to FC Yelimay and a 1-0 home victory over Irtysh Pavlodar. In those eight matches they have scored six goals and let in thirteen. They kept only one clean sheet and failed to find the net in three games. Four of the matches produced three or more goals and both sides scored in four of them.

Astana have been steadier. Over their last eight fixtures they have won four, drawn two and lost two. Their recent run includes a 0-0 home draw with Kaisar Kyzylorda, a 2-2 home stalemate with Kaspiy Aktau, a 1-0 away win at Irtysh Pavlodar, a 2-1 away loss to Tobol Kostanay, a 1-0 home victory over Kairat Almaty and a 1-0 away defeat to Ordabasy Shymkent. They arrive on the back of two straight draws. In these eight games Astana have scored twelve and conceded seven, keeping four clean sheets while failing to score in two. Three of the matches featured three or more goals and both sides scored in three of them. Their last outing was six days ago.

The two clubs have met five times this season and Astana have won every encounter. The meetings have averaged 3.4 goals. The most recent meeting on 8 March 2026 ended in a 4-1 victory for Astana at Zhetysu. That result shows Astana’s ability to score and Zhetysu’s defensive frailties. Given the history, we can expect another game with several goals and a clear advantage for the visitors.

We back FC Astana to win. The numbers give Astana an average of 1.9 goals compared with Zhetysu’s 0.9, and the chance of an Astana win sits at about 62 %. The price of 1.70 matches our view of the game. For Astana to drop points, Zhetysu would need to score early and hold a clean sheet, something they have done only once in their recent run. If Zhetysu manage to keep the game tight and force a draw, our pick would be wrong, but the odds and the form both point to an Astana victory.