What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from RC Deportivo De La Coruna and 1.5 from Valencia, so Valencia come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.2-1.5), and we make both teams to score about 53%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 53 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
What the numbers say
✓Valencia have won three of their last five.
One thing to watch
One well-drilled defence, or a game that turns one-sided, and this is gone. We only make this about 53%, so it's far from a lock.
