How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Over 1.5 goals 66%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Vallecano and 1.1 from Alaves, so Vallecano come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Vallecano come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.3 goals between the two (xG 1.3-1.0), landing about 69% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.56, which works out at about 64 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Vallecano have won four of the last five meetings.
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