What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Vallecano and 1.0 from Alaves, so Vallecano come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Vallecano come into this on four straight wins. Alaves come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.3 goals between the two (xG 1.3-1.0), landing about 69% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
An early goal can kill the tempo just as easily as spark it, and a quiet second half leaves this short. At around 69% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
