What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Sevilla and 1.2 from Valencia, so Sevilla come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 2.6 goals (xG 1.4-1.2) and it takes three to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 58%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.56, which works out at about 64 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Cagey games can burst open late, and a couple of goals in the closing stages would be enough to catch this out. The price is shorter than our own read of about 58%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
