What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Sevilla and 1.1 from Vallecano, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Sevilla come into this on five straight defeats. Vallecano come into this on four straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.3 goals between the two (xG 1.1-1.1), landing about 70% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
If one side settles for what they have, or the game turns cagey, the goals can dry up in a hurry. We make it about 70%: a lean, not a lock.
