How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Riga FC to win 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.7 goals from FK Jelgava and 2.4 from Riga FC, so Riga FC come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Riga FC to win. Riga FC shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.7-2.4), and we make them about 76% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Riga FC have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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