How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made RFS to win 56%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Auda and 1.7 from RFS, so RFS come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: RFS to win. RFS shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.7), and we make them about 58% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.70, which works out at about 59 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
RFS have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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