How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 1. We made BFC Daugavpils or Draw 69%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from FK Jelgava and 1.2 from BFC Daugavpils, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
FK Jelgava come into this on three straight defeats. BFC Daugavpils come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: BFC Daugavpils or Draw. This covers BFC Daugavpils or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.17, which works out at about 85 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
BFC Daugavpils have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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