How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Auda to win 62%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Ogre United host Auda at home on 25 October in the Latvia Virsliga. Ogre sit bottom of the ten-team table with 18 points from 33 games and a –48 goal difference. They are in the relegation places, seven points behind FK Tukums 2000, who sit just above them. Auda sit third with 64 points and a +19 goal difference, comfortably inside the European spots. Riga FC sit one place above Auda, 15 points clear, while FK Liepāja are 17 points behind. The match could decide whether Ogre stay in the drop zone or climb a spot, while Auda look to keep pressure on the leaders.
Ogre United have not been able to string together good form. In their last five matches they have won once, drawn once and lost three times. The most recent results are a 3-2 loss away to Grobiņa, a 2-1 defeat at home to BFC Daugavpils, a 1-0 home win over SK Super Nova, a 1-0 loss away to Auda and a 2-2 home draw with FK Liepāja. In those five games they have scored six goals and let in eight. They kept only one clean sheet and failed to score in one match. Three of the games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in three of them. Their last home game was a draw, but they have now suffered two straight defeats.
Auda arrive in better shape. In their last eight fixtures they have won five, drawn two and lost once. The latest results are a 2-1 away loss to BFC Daugavpils, a 3-2 away win over FK Liepāja, a 1-1 home draw with RFS, a 1-0 home win over Ogre United, a 2-2 away draw with Riga FC and a 1-0 home victory over Drita. On the road in their last four games they have two wins, one draw and one loss. Across the eight matches they have scored 13 goals and conceded eight, keeping three clean sheets. Four of those games produced three or more goals and both sides found the net in five of them. Their most recent loss to BFC Daugavpils was a narrow 2-1 defeat away, showing they can still score but were edged out.
The two sides have met before, the most recent encounter ending in a 1-0 win for Auda at home. That game was tight, with only one goal separating them. Given Ogre’s recent defensive frailties and Auda’s ability to score on the road, we expect another open contest. Both teams have been involved in games with three or more goals, and the numbers suggest an average of three goals in this match. Ogre have a 60 % chance to score at all and a 23 % chance to score twice, while Auda have an 87 % chance to find the net and a 60 % chance to hit the net twice. The outlook points to chances at both ends.
We pick Auda to win. The price of 1.47 is shorter than our own reading of the game, which gives Auda about a 64 % chance of success. Auda are the stronger side on the numbers and have shown they can score away from home. For our pick to go wrong, Ogre would need to tighten up defensively and find a way to score at least twice while keeping Auda below one goal. If Ogre manage a clean sheet and score, the result could be different, but the balance of probability still favours Auda.
Recent results
Auda have won two of the last three meetings, with one drawn.
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