FK Liepāja v FK Tukums 2000: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 0. We made FK Liepāja to win 62%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

FK Liepāja host FK Tukums 2000 in the Virsliga on 24 October. Liepāja sit fourth in the ten-team table with 46 points, level on goal difference. They are just one point above BFC Daugavpils and far behind Auda, who sit one place higher with an 18-point cushion. Tukums 2000 are down in ninth place with 24 points and a –21 goal difference, sitting in the relegation zone. Grobiņa sit a single spot above them, while Ogre United are below. Both clubs are fighting for very different things – Liepāja looking to stay in the top half and Tukums 2000 battling to avoid the drop.

Liepāja’s recent form has been mixed. In their last four matches they have recorded one win, two draws and one loss. The most recent result was a 3-0 victory over FK Jelgava at home. Before that they fell 3-2 to Auda on their own turf, then held BFC Daugavpils to a goalless draw at home and managed a 2-2 draw away at Ogre United. In those four games they have scored seven goals and let in five. They kept two clean sheets but also failed to find the net once. Three of the four fixtures produced three or more goals, and both sides scored in two of them.

Tukums 2000 arrive on the back of two straight defeats. Their last four outings have produced no wins, one draw and three losses. The most recent game was a 2-0 loss away to RFS. Prior to that they were beaten 2-0 at home by Riga FC, drew 1-1 with Grobiņa at home and lost 1-0 away to SK Super Nova. Across those four matches they have scored just one goal while conceding six, and they have failed to score in three of the games. None of the four fixtures saw three or more goals, and only the draw with Grobiņa featured both teams on the scoresheet.

When the two sides have met before, the games have tended to be open, with chances for both teams. The numbers we have suggest a similar pattern this time – Liepāja are expected to score about 2.1 goals and Tukums 2000 about 1.1, giving an average of just over three goals in the match. The chance that Liepāja will find the net at all is very high, 89 %, and they are likely to score twice or more in 62 % of their games. Tukums 2000 will score in 64 % of their matches but only manage two goals in 27 % of them. This points to a game where the home side should dominate the attack while the visitors struggle to create many chances.

We back FK Liepāja to win. The price of 1.42 is shorter than what we feel the game is worth, but the odds still give a decent return for a side that is clearly stronger on the numbers. Our chance of the pick succeeding sits at 62 %. For the result to go wrong, Tukums 2000 would need to keep a clean sheet and either score first or hold Liepāja to a single goal, something that has happened rarely in their recent matches. As long as Liepāja keep their usual scoring rate, the win looks the cleaner play.