How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Dundalk to score 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Dundalk host Bohemians at home on 2 October in the League of Ireland. Dundalk sit fifth in the ten-team table with 41 points from 32 games and a –4 goal difference. Bohemians are third with 56 points from 31 games and a +18 goal difference, sitting in the European places. The gap between them and the team above is three points, while Derry City sit just one place above Dundalk. Both clubs are looking to improve their positions, but Bohemians have more to lose if they slip and more to gain if they keep their momentum.
Dundalk have not been in good form. In their last eight matches they have won once, drawn three times and lost four times. The most recent results are a 3-2 loss to Shelbourne at home, a 4-0 defeat to St Patricks at home, two 1-1 draws with Waterford away, a 3-2 win over Drogheda away and a 2-1 loss to Galway at home. That run gives them eleven goals scored and seventeen conceded, with only one game where they failed to find the net. Four of those eight games were at home and all ended in defeat or draw, so they arrive on two straight losses.
Bohemians come in far stronger. Their last eight outings have produced six wins, one draw and one loss. They beat Drogheda 2-1 at home, then travelled to win 3-2 at Galway, followed by a 3-0 home win over Sligo Rovers and a thrilling 5-3 victory over Derry City at home. The only setback was a 3-1 away loss to Waterford, after which they drew 1-1 with Galway at home. In those eight games they have scored nineteen and let in ten, keeping three clean sheets. Their recent road form is good too, with two away wins and one loss in the last three trips. They also played their last match fourteen days ago.
The two sides have met five times before. Dundalk have won once, Bohemians twice and two games ended in draws. Those meetings have produced an average of 2.6 goals per game. The most recent encounter was on 19 June, when Bohemians lost 1-2 at home to Dundalk. Given the goal averages and the recent form of both clubs, we expect another open contest with chances at both ends. Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games lately, and the numbers suggest a total around three and a half goals.
Our pick is Dundalk to score. We see a 68 % chance that they will find the net and a 71 % chance that this bet will be right. The price of 1.29 is shorter than we feel the game deserves, which makes the offer attractive. For the pick to fail, Dundalk would have to be shut out, which seems unlikely given their recent ability to score even in defeat and the fact that Bohemians have been scoring heavily away from home. We think the odds are worth taking.
Recent results
Bohemians have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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