How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Shamrock Rovers and 0.9 from Drogheda, so Shamrock Rovers come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Shamrock Rovers to score 2 or fewer. This is about Shamrock Rovers's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.8 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 70%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.45, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Shamrock Rovers have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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