How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 59%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Galway host Shelbourne at home on 25 September in a League of Ireland clash that could tighten the battle for the middle of the table. Galway sit seventh out of ten with 37 points and a minus six goal difference. Shelbourne are a place above them in sixth with 39 points and a minus three goal difference. A win for Galway would lift them to sixth and push Shelbourne down, while a loss would see Shelbourne move up to fifth and leave Galway still chasing a spot in the top half. Both clubs are only a few points apart from the teams around them, so the three points are worth a lot.
Galway’s recent form has been mixed over their last eight games, with two wins, four draws and two defeats. The most recent results are a 1-0 loss away to Derry City, a 3-1 away win over Sligo Rovers, a 3-2 home loss to Bohemians and a 1-1 home draw with Shelbourne. Before that they beat Dundalk 2-1 away and drew 1-1 with Bray Wanderers at home. In those eight matches Galway have scored ten goals and let in nine. They kept only one clean sheet and failed to find the net in two games. Six of the eight games saw both sides score, and three featured three or more goals.
Shelbourne have also been inconsistent in their last eight outings, recording two wins, two draws and four defeats. Their latest fixtures include a 3-2 away win over Dundalk, a 2-1 home loss to Drogheda, a 1-0 home loss to Derry City and a 0-0 away draw with Shamrock Rovers. Earlier they drew 1-1 with Galway away and lost 2-1 at home to St Patricks. In total Shelbourne have scored eight and conceded ten in those eight games. They kept one clean sheet but have been shut out three times. Five of the eight matches produced three or more goals and both sides scored in five of them.
When the two clubs meet, the games have been tight. In the last five meetings Galway have not won, Shelbourne have won once and the other four matches ended in draws. The average scoreline across those meetings is 1.8 goals. The most recent encounter on 28 August ended in a 1-1 draw, showing that both sides are capable of finding the net but also that defenses can hold firm. Given the similar goal expectations – about 1.3 for Galway and 1.2 for Shelbourne – we can expect another low-scoring but open affair with chances at both ends.
Our pick is for both teams to score. The chance of this happening sits at 59 out of 100 and the price offered is 1.54, which is shorter than our own reading of the game. The price looks good for a result that feels likely. For the pick to fail, either side would need to keep a clean sheet. That would require a very tight defensive display from one team and a lack of finishing from the other, which does not match the recent pattern of both sides scoring in most of their games. We therefore feel confident that both sides will get on the scoresheet.
Recent results
Shelbourne have won one of the last five meetings, with four drawn.
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