What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from Shamrock Rovers and 0.9 from Waterford, so Shamrock Rovers come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Shamrock Rovers to win. Shamrock Rovers are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-0.9), and we make them about 59% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Shamrock Rovers have won one of their last five.
✓Waterford are unbeaten in their last five — three wins and two draws.
✓Four of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in two of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
19 Jun 2026Waterford 0 - 2 Shamrock Rovers
1 May 2026Shamrock Rovers 1 - 0 Waterford
3 Apr 2026Waterford 1 - 1 Shamrock Rovers
22 Sept 2025Waterford 1 - 2 Shamrock Rovers
27 Jun 2025Shamrock Rovers 1 - 0 Waterford
