Blackpool v Peterboro: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 4. We made Under 3.5 goals 71%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

The game looks fairly even but the numbers give Blackpool a slight edge. They are expected to score a little more than Peterboro – about 1.6 goals to 1.2. That means the match should stay tight, with neither side likely to run away with a big lead. We expect a modest amount of chances, not a free-flowing goal fest.

Both teams have been similar in recent outings, and when they have met before the scores have stayed close. The pattern shows neither side dominating for long periods, and the goal totals have usually hovered around three. That history lines up with the current expectations of a low-scoring encounter.

We think the safest call is Under 3.5 goals. The price of 1.52 is longer than what we feel the game will produce, so it looks attractive. We estimate the total will be around 2.8 goals – roughly 1.6 for Blackpool and 1.2 for Peterboro – meaning the line will be beaten about 73 times out of 100. It’s a close call, but the odds make it worth the risk.

For the pick to fail, the match would need to open up and produce four or more goals. That would require both sides to be unusually aggressive or to concede early and chase the game. While anything can happen, we feel fairly confident in our view and think the chance of staying under the line is strong.

Recent meetings