How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Under 3.5 goals 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Milton Keynes Dons look a bit stronger on paper, with an average of 1.5 goals expected compared with Leicester’s 1.1. The numbers suggest a fairly even match, but the Dons have a slight edge. It does not look like a goal-fest; both sides are likely to keep things tight and look for chances rather than throw everything forward.
Leicester have not been in good shape lately. In their last five league games, whether at home or away, they have managed only one win, one draw and three defeats. They come into this fixture on three straight losses, which makes it hard to expect a big attacking display from them. The recent run points to a cautious approach.
We are backing the Under 3.5 goals. The price of 1.45 is longer than what we feel the game will produce, so it gives us a nice return if it holds. Our own view is that the match will end with about 2.7 goals in total – roughly 1.5 for the Dons and 1.2 for Leicester – meaning the under should hit most of the time.
For the pick to go wrong, both teams would need to find the net many times, turning a cagey contest into a high-scoring affair. That would require Leicester to snap out of their three-game losing streak and the Dons to open up more than expected. We are fairly confident in our view, rating the chance of the under hitting at about 75 out of 100.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
