How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 5. We made Under 3.5 goals 78%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
The game looks very even. Both teams are close on the numbers we have – Bromley at 1.5 and Leyton Orient at 1.6. There is almost nothing between them, so we expect an open match with chances for both sides. It should not be a one-sided affair.
We have no recent results or past meetings to add, so the only clue comes from the goal expectations. Those numbers point to a match where both sides can find the net, but nothing suggests a flood of goals. The balance hints at a tight contest rather than a goal-fest.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals. The price of 1.34 is longer than what we feel the game will produce, so the price looks good to us. We think the match will settle around 2.3 goals in total, roughly 1.3 for Bromley and 1.0 for Leyton Orient. That makes the under a safe choice.
It would have to turn into a very open game with many chances for the under to fail. If both teams start scoring early and keep the pressure on, the total could push past 3.5. We are fairly confident in our view, but we know a sudden burst of goals would change things.
Recent results
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