Leicester v Plymouth: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Under 2.5 goals 51%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

The game looks very even. Both teams are expected to score just over one goal each, so the total should be around two and a half. There is almost nothing separating them on those numbers, so we can expect a tight match rather than a free-flowing affair.

Leicester have only managed one win, one draw and three defeats in their last five league games, whether at home or away. Plymouth have been a little steadier, with one win, one draw and one loss in their last three outings. The recent results show both sides are struggling to find the net consistently, which fits the picture of a low-scoring encounter.

We back the Under 2.5 goals. Our reasoning is simple: the goal expectations for each side are low and the odds of three or more goals are only about a 47 % chance. The price of 2.20 is a bit longer than we think the game will be, but it still offers a nice return for a result that should happen more often than not.

For the pick to fail we would need both teams to find the net twice, pushing the total to three or more. That would require a sudden burst of finishing that neither side has shown lately. We feel fairly confident in our view, but we know the margin is thin, so we keep the stance moderate.