How it turned out
We projected about 1.9 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Not both teams to score 64%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Burton and 0.9 from Stevenage, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 1.9 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Not both teams to score. A clean sheet is on the cards in a quiet game (about 1.9 xG).
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.73, which works out at about 58 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
It only takes one lapse at either end — both sides finding the net is never far away. We make it about 64%: a lean, not a lock.
