How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Not both teams to score 60%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Cambridge and 1.0 from Wigan, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Not both teams to score. A clean sheet is on the cards in a quiet game (about 2.0 xG).
We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.83, which works out at about 55 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Both these sides carry some threat, so one moment at either end spoils it. We only make this about 60%, so it's far from a lock.
