Leicester v Peterboro: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.3 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 2.1 goals from Leicester and 1.2 from Peterboro, so Leicester come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Peterboro come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 2.9 goals (xG 1.7-1.2), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 75%).

We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.