How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Mansfield (Draw No Bet) 77%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.6 goals from Mansfield and 1.0 from Bromley, so Mansfield come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Mansfield (Draw No Bet). Mansfield are favoured here (xG 2.6-1.0), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Mansfield defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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