What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Milton Keynes Dons and 1.5 from Luton, so Luton come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Luton or Draw. This covers Luton or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Milton Keynes Dons have won one of their last five.
✓Luton have won two of their last five.
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