What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Plymouth and 1.4 from Stockport, so Plymouth come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.1 goals between the two (xG 1.7-1.4), landing about 61% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.71, which works out at about 58 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
If one side settles for what they have, or the game turns cagey, the goals can dry up in a hurry. We make it about 61%: a lean, not a lock.
