How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals and the game finished with 1. We made Wigan to score 1 or fewer 79%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Stevenage and 0.7 from Wigan, so Stevenage come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Stevenage come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Wigan to score 1 or fewer. This is about Wigan's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.7 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 79%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Stevenage have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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