How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Colchester (Draw No Bet) 60%, but the stake came back in full.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Accrington and 1.2 from Colchester, so Colchester come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Colchester (Draw No Bet). Colchester favoured (xG 1.0-1.2); a draw refunds your stake.
We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.93, which works out at about 52 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A draw hands your stake back, so only an outright Accrington win beats you — but on the day nothing is guaranteed. We make it about 60%: a lean, not a lock.
