What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Accrington and 1.1 from Gillingham, so Accrington come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.6 goals (xG 1.5-1.1), and two is enough to land it, landing about 74% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Accrington have won one of their last five.
✓Gillingham have won two of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in four of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
6 Apr 2026Gillingham 2 - 0 Accrington
2 Aug 2025Accrington 1 - 1 Gillingham
15 Mar 2025Accrington 1 - 1 Gillingham
12 Oct 2024Gillingham 1 - 2 Accrington
13 Jan 2024Accrington 1 - 2 Gillingham
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