How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 52%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks fairly even but a little tilted to Grimsby. The numbers suggest Grimsby will score a bit more, about 1.5 goals on average, while Accrington are expected to get around 1.1. That means we can expect a couple of goals in total, not a defensive slog and not a goal-fest. Both sides have enough firepower to find the net, so the match should stay open rather than being locked down.
Looking at recent numbers, the two clubs together are set to produce roughly 2.6 goals. That pattern points to both teams getting on the scoresheet fairly often when they meet. The average goals for each side line up with the idea that neither side is likely to keep a clean sheet. So far the trend has been that when they play, goals come from both ends.
Our pick is both teams to score. We think the price of 1.78 is a bit short compared with what we see on the pitch. With each side averaging over a goal, the chance of both finding the net sits at about 52 out of 100. It feels like a solid call and the price looks good for the risk.
It would have to go wrong if one side shuts out the other, for example if Accrington struggle to create any clear chances or Grimsby manage a clean sheet. A very tight defensive display would break our view. We are fairly confident in the pick, but we know a single shut-out would flip the outcome.
Recent results
Grimsby have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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