How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 61%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks fairly even but York have a slight edge in the numbers. We expect about 1.4 goals from Cheltenham and 1.8 from York, so the total should be around three goals. That suggests an open match with chances for both sides rather than a tight, defensive battle.
Recent numbers point to both teams finding the net regularly. The goal expectations for each side are above one per game, which means they have been scoring and also giving away chances. When teams with similar scoring rates meet, they usually end up sharing the spoils and producing goals at both ends.
Our pick is both teams to score. The chance of this happening sits at about 61 out of 100, and the price of 1.68 matches our view of the game. Both sides have enough attacking threat to get on the scoresheet, and the expected goal totals support a fairly high likelihood of a goal from each team.
It would only go wrong if one side shuts down completely and keeps a clean sheet. A very defensive display or a rare miss in front of goal could stop the both-teams-to-score outcome. We feel fairly confident in our view, but we know a single strong defensive effort could change things.
Recent results
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