What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Bristol Rovers and 1.4 from Colchester, so Colchester come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Bristol Rovers come into this on two straight wins. Colchester come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.3 goals in total (xG 0.9-1.4), keeping it under more often than not (about 58%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.93, which works out at about 52 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Cagey games can burst open late, and a couple of goals in the closing stages would be enough to catch this out. We only make this about 58%, so it's far from a lock.
