How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Not both teams to score 54%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks fairly even in terms of how many goals we think will be scored. We expect just under one goal for Bristol Rovers and a little more than one for Colchester, adding up to about two and a half goals in total. That suggests a low-key match where both sides may try to keep things tight and not leave many chances open.
Looking at recent numbers, Colchester comes out as the stronger side. Their expected goal tally is higher than Bristol Rovers’ and the overall picture points to them having a slight edge. When a team is expected to score more, it often means they will dominate the chances and keep the opposition under pressure.
Our pick is that both teams will not score. The price of 1.96 matches our own view of the match. With a 54 % chance of happening, we feel the odds are fair for a game that is likely to stay quiet and see at most one side finding the net.
For this pick to fail, both sides would need to score, which would require a more open game than the numbers suggest. If the match turns into a goal-fest, our view would be wrong. We hold the opinion moderately strong, but we know a single goal from Bristol Rovers would be enough to break it.
Recent results
Colchester have won two of the last four meetings, with two drawn.
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